Disaggregating the Vulnerabilities: Misinformation in Military Decision-Making Processes

• In Event: Government Responses to Terrorism Across the Globe

Abstract

This paper aims to better understand the process through which false information impacts military decision-making processes. Within any decision-making process, understanding the situation (referred to as “situational awareness” or “sensemaking”) is a critical component – most errors in action stem from an incorrect understanding of the situation and those involved. Military decision-making is inherently complicated by uncertainty, but further complicated by intentional efforts to instill confusion, misdirection, or deception via mis, dis and malinformation. Despite widespread knowledge of misinformation, and many examples of successful misinformation campaigns, we have little systematic knowledge of the process through which such information has an effect. Therefore, we conduct a comprehensive literature review to disaggregate the effects of misinformation within military decision-making. We examine the vulnerabilities inherent in each stage, exploring how cognitive biases, information asymmetry, and time constraints create opportunity for the propagation, and trust, of misinformation; case studies are used to illustrate instances where misinformation has infiltrated military decision-making processes, leading to suboptimal outcomes. Based on analysis of existing literature, we propose strategies to address vulnerabilities, ranging from enhancing critical thinking skills to developing trainings, and leveraging technology, like AI tools, for misinformation counteraction. We conclude by outlining avenues for future empirical research.

Authors

• Presley McGarry, Norwich University

• Neil Shortland, University of Massachusetts Lowell