Understanding the Increase in Presumptive Incarceration Rates: Insights from Minnesota's Sentencing Guidelines

• In Event: Courts, Punishment, and Mass Incarceration

Abstract

Under Minnesota’s sentencing guidelines system, a “presumptive prison” sentence refers to situations in which the guidelines recommend a state prison sentence, rather than a non-prison (or presumptive stayed) sentence. Over the past four decades, the presumptive prison rate has increased precipitously, rising to a record-high 38.4 percent of cases in 2022.Based on analysis of administrative data from the Minnesota Sentencing Guidelines Commission, legal research, and stakeholder perspectives, our study seeks to uncover the reasons behind this trend. We examine a range of potential factors, including shifts in sentencing policies, changes in guideline parameters, and demographic shifts in the offending population. We aim to offer insights for policymakers, practitioners, and scholars while exploring the unique role of sentencing commissions and legislative actions in shaping guideline recommendations for incarceration.

Authors

• Julia Laskorunsky, University of Minnesota

• Christopher Uggen, University of Minnesota

• Nick Dickens, University of MInnesota

• Aaron Sojourner, Upjohn Institute