State and Local Determinants of Imprisonment and Disparity: Is the US Becoming Less Punitive?

• In Event: Geography of Incarceration

Abstract

Whereas the total US imprisonment rate, and overall racial disparity, have decreased since 2009, changes at the state level has been far more varied, decreasing in most states, but increasing in others. Descriptive analyses at the county level also reveal substantial variation, with sizeable decreases in incarceration rates in large urban counties, and rates continuing to rise in rural areas (Vera, yr). However, little scholarly research examines the social structural factors that may explain the variation in states’ use of imprisonment since the rates peaked; and little to no research examines these trends at both the state and local/county levels. The current study addresses these gaps in the literature using National Corrections Reporting Program data on prison admissions in 26 states, from 1990 to 2019. Multilevel models examine variation in prison admission rates by county, state, and over time, as a function of crime and arrest rates, racial composition, politics, political ideology, and economic disadvantage. Implications for understanding the decrease in imprisonment, and racial disparity, at the national level, are discussed.

Authors

• Rodney L. Engen, University of Arkansas

• Sidney Bigham, University of Arkansas