Exploring the Myths Surrounding Terrorism in Nigeria: A Longitudinal Study of Terrorist Activity in Nigeria

• In Event: Poster Session 1

Abstract

Terrorist activity in Nigeria has been a significant concern for several years. Speculations posit that if the president is a Muslim from the Northern part of the country, the likelihood of violent activity would be limited. However, there is little empirical evidence to support the claim that the religious and ethnic background of Nigeria's president significantly affects the frequency and intensity of terrorism. A comprehensive study is needed to understand the unique effects of presidencies on terrorist activity within Nigeria. This study aims to investigate the impact of the past presidencies on terrorist incidents in Nigeria by analyzing the frequency and severity of attacks during the presidencies of Presidents Obasanjo, Yar'adua, Goodluck, and Buhari. We explored relationships between presidencies and the patterns of terrorist attacks in Nigeria utilizing data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Our findings, derived from the Chi-square test of independence, suggest an association between the presidencies and the geographical spread of terrorism. Additionally, the outcomes of a multinomial logistic regression analysis indicate an interplay between the political affiliations and religious beliefs of presidents and the prevalence of terrorism within these regions. The discussion delves into implications for future research and the broader comprehension of terrorism in Nigeria.

Authors

• Peculiar Miracle Awa, University of Central Missouri

• Myunghyun Choi, University of Central Missouri