Spatial Analysis of Opioid Overdose Deaths and Socioeconomic Risks in Delaware Using Statistical Models and GIS

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Abstract

This study explores the correlation between socioeconomic marginalization indicators and opioid overdose (OD) death rates in Delaware, identifying key influential factors. Using the Delaware Opioid Metric Intelligence Project (DOMIP) dataset, which analyzes the opioid crisis in Delaware from 2013 to 2018, the research integrates public health and criminal justice data. Employing negative binomial regression models and ANOVA analysis, the study examines the relationships between opioid OD deaths and various socioeconomic factors.

The regression models highlight disability rates and arrest rates as significant predictors of opioid OD deaths. A composite risk score, badrisk2, was developed to capture areas with compounded socioeconomic vulnerabilities. This risk score was visualized using geographic information system (GIS) mapping, revealing the spatial distribution of high-risk areas across Delaware's census tracts.

The results indicate that higher disability and arrest rates correlate with increased opioid OD deaths, emphasizing the significant impact of law enforcement practices and socioeconomic conditions on health outcomes. The ANOVA analysis further reveals disparities in OD death rates among groups with varying levels of compounded socioeconomic risks. This study underscores the importance of comprehensive strategies that address socioeconomic determinants to effectively mitigate the opioid crisis in Delaware's most vulnerable communities.

Author

• Jennifer P. Rogers, University of Miami