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The research on risk and needs factors of criminal recidivism using assessment tools is extensive, mostly, focusing on general prison samples and predictive risk factors. However, there is significantly less research on high-risk recidivism samples, as their fate seems inevitable. In correctional contexts where intervention and rehabilitation are key, examining unlikely success stories is important. Therefore, the current study aims to examine the profiles of high-risk offenders not returning to the criminal justice system. The study is based on a large Canadian sample of individuals (n=15,718) convicted for a criminal offense and sentenced to either probation or short-term incarceration. All individuals were subjected to an intake assessment using the LS/CMI, a risk-need assessment tool including an actuarial component. This sample included individuals classified as either High-risk or very High-risk to reoffend (n=8,197) based on their LS/CMI total score, with their general recidivism reflected their risk status (58.9%). A series of survival analyses were conducted to examine the covariates of non-recidivism, including familial, interpersonal, psychological, and mental health factors. The findings will be discussed in terms of the multiple paths toward desistance from crime in high-risk adult offenders.
Keywords: High-risk offenders, LS/CMI; recidivism; risk factors; survival analysis
Pagnol Kouassi
Université LAVAL