Examining Changes in National Crime Clearance Rates Over Time: A Comparison of Police and Victim Data from 1993 – 2020

• In Event: Understanding Patterns and Trends in Clearance of Lethal and Non-lethal Criminal Victimization

Abstract

Clearance rates are considered key indicators of police performance and law enforcement’s delivery of justice. Studies relying on official police data from the Uniform Crime Reports indicate that nationally, clearance rates have been declining over time, especially for more serious offenses; however, there are documented issues in using official data to measure clearances (e.g., changes in agencies reporting, temporal mismatch). Moreover, many of the negative consequences that can result when cases are not cleared—such as a decrease in the victim’s willingness to seek police help or to cooperate during future investigations, loss of police legitimacy, and a reduction in perceptions of police effectiveness—operate via victims’ perceptions of how their cases were resolved. In this study, we describe an alternate nationally representative data source for capturing temporal changes in clearance that captures the perceptions of victims, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). We then compare the clearance rates obtained from the NCVS with those reported in the UCR for 1993 – 2020 for several crime types. We conclude by discussing the potential value of the NCVS for capturing trends in police performance, particularly as viewed by victims.

Authors

• Lee Ann Slocum, University of Missouri-St. Louis

• Maribeth L. Rezey, Loyola University Chicago

• Paige E. Vaughn, Spring Hill College