The Credibility Crisis in Criminology: The Case of Social Learning Theory

Session Submission Type: Complete Thematic Panel

Abstract/Description

Given the ongoing credibility crisis occurring in the social sciences, it is crucial for criminology to examine its theoretical approaches for reproducibility and false positive findings. The field of psychology is facing a similar crisis and has identified contributing issues throughout the derivation chain including theoretical, methodological, and statistical conerns. This panel assesses the replication crisis in criminology through the lens of social learning theory. First, a z-curve analysis identifies the false discovery rate and estimated replication rate of social learning theory. Next, the calculation of the index of qualitative variation for key social learning variables indicates the degree of theoretical flexibility. Finally, a Bayesian simulation calculates the impact of weak theory and methodological concerns on the false positive rate in the social learning literature. We discuss the implications for social learning theory and criminology at large given the findings presented.

Sub Unit

• Area XI. Methodology / 77. Advances in Quantitative Methods

Individual Presentations

• The Theory Crisis in Criminology: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions - Caitlin Ducate, Texas A&M University-San Antonio; Sarah R. Bostrom, AIMS/USAFA; K. Ryan Proctor, AIMS/USAFA; Richard E. Niemeyer, USAFA/WERC

• Replicating Criminological Theories: A Z-Curve Analysis of Social Learning Theory - Sarah R. Bostrom, AIMS/USAFA; Caitlin Ducate, Texas A&M University-San Antonio; Alexis De Silva, United States Space Force; K. Ryan Proctor, AIMS/USAFA; Richard E. Niemeyer, USAFA/WERC

• Contributors to the Theory Crisis: Flexibility of Variable Operationalization in Social Learning Theory - K. Ryan Proctor, AIMS/USAFA; Sarah R. Bostrom, AIMS/USAFA; Richard E. Niemeyer, USAFA/WERC

• Estimating False Positive Research Finding Rates for Social Learning Theory: A Bayesian Approach - Richard E. Niemeyer, USAFA/WERC; Sarah R. Bostrom, AIMS/USAFA; K. Ryan Proctor, AIMS/USAFA

Discussant

• Brendan Dooley, Mount St. Mary's University

Organized by a Division or external group?

Athena Institute for Mechanistic Science