Early Termination: Shortening Federal Supervision Terms Without Endangering Public Safety

• In Event: Evaluation of Probation Outcomes and Effectiveness

Abstract

In the U.S. federal system, courts have the discretion to grant early termination of supervision for people on federal probation or supervised release under certain circumstances. This study sought to provide a profile of who was most likely to receive early terminations by examining 296,023 people whose supervision terms were successfully closed via early or regular termination during the 10 years encompassing fiscal years 2014 through 2023. Several research issues were explored, including the extent to which a supervisee’s risk profile correlated with the use of early termination and an examination of whether early terminations endangered community safety. Overall, research showed that this closure type had moderate correlations with a supervisee’s risk profile; however, other factors—including supervision time imposed and, most importantly, district of case closure—had the greatest bearing on whether a case would end by early termination. Moreover, using a process in which early and regular termed supervisees were matched on a variety of criteria associated with the risk of recidivism, the study found that early terminations did not threaten community safety.

Author

• Thomas Cohen, Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts – Probation and Pretrial Services Office