Analysing Lone Actor Terrorism Through a Relative Harm Framework

• In Event: Understanding Terrorist Threats

Abstract

Lone actor terrorism is a significant global security challenge, marked by unpredictable attacks, diverse motivations, and varying impacts. Our research analyzes lone actor terrorist incidents from 2010 to 2020, focusing on location, target, offender, and weapon characteristics. We developed a harm formula to quantify and compare attack severity, enabling a structured analysis of key factors. Using a data-driven approach, we assess the relative impact of lone actor attacks by integrating variables such as casualty counts, weapon lethality, and target selection into a standardized harm metric. This offers a comprehensive understanding of what drives high-impact attacks, improving risk assessments and counterterrorism strategies. Our findings reveal patterns that challenge common assumptions, particularly regarding weapon choice and target vulnerability, and explore how certain offender profiles correlate with higher attack severity. This presentation will cover our methodology, key findings, and implications for law enforcement, intelligence agencies, and policymakers, enhancing threat assessment models and resource allocation.

Authors

• Mahmut Cengiz, George Mason University

• Kutluer Karademir, Teesside University