The Cost of Punitiveness: National and Individual Economic Conditions Shaping Punitive Attitudes

• In Event: Politics, Economics, Criminal Justice, and Public Opinion

Abstract

In the U.S., public punitiveness has long shaped criminal justice policy, yet the influence of economic conditions on these attitudes remains underexplored. This study examines how national economic indicators (e.g., GDP, unemployment) and individual-level economic insecurity shape support for punitive policies over time. Using Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) logit regression with survey year as a random effect, we analyze General Social Survey (GSS) repeated cross-sections (1972–2022), appending period-specific economic data from the World Bank Group (WBG) and crime data from the Uniform Crime Report (UCR), alongside theoretical and empirical controls. We further assess whether demographic or ideological factors moderate these associations, potentially revealing economic tipping points that drive punitive sentiment. This research addresses key gaps in prior work by synthesizing disparate theoretical concepts from economic individualism and social animus/bias perspectives while leveraging a nationally representative longitudinal design with robust methodology and integrated macro-level data. Findings will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of how economic forces shape punitive attitudes and inform discussions on the broader societal trade-offs between the sustainability of punitive governance and rehabilitative justice policies.

Authors

• Luke DeZago, University of Massachusetts Lowell

• Jason Rydberg, University of Massachusetts Lowell