Shifting Economic Trends and Crime in Rural Communities

• In Event: Macrosocial Factors and Crime

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between shifting economic trends and property crime in Natrona County, Wyoming, from January 2021 to December 2023. Using an OLS regression model, the analysis found statistically significant results (p < 0.001). The impact of COVID-19 on property crime was negative, with months during the pandemic showing a decrease of 59.307 crimes. Population size had a positive correlation with property crime, with each additional person linked to 0.505 more crimes. Gas production was statistically significant but showed no clear directional effect. The number of homes on the market was positively related to property crime, with each home for sale associated with an increase of 0.685 property crimes. These findings highlight how shifting economic factors, including population changes and market conditions, may influence crime rates in rural communities. This is especially the case during a pandemic.

Authors

• Tracy Tully, St. Thomas Aquinas College

• Joshua Regan, Western New England University

• Melissa Smith, University of Oklahoma