Challenging the Narrative: Reassessing the Risk of False Confessions and Wrongful Convictions

• In Event: Challenging the Consensus in Policing

Abstract

False confessions are frequently portrayed as a widespread systemic issue necessitating sweeping interrogation reforms. However, using Bayesian inverse probability analyses, we find the risk of wrongful convictions resulting from legally permissible interrogation techniques to be markedly lower than prevailing scholarship asserts, typically under 0.5%, even under permissive assumptions. Our analysis highlights methodological flaws—particularly concerns regarding ecological validity—in the existing literature. Given these findings, broad interrogation policy reforms advocated by many scholars may inadvertently harm legitimate investigative practices without meaningfully reducing wrongful convictions.

Authors

• Scott Mourtgos, University of South Carolina

• Ian T. Adams, University of South Carolina