The Proximate and Prolonged Effects of State Spending Prioritization on Crime

• In Event: Institutional Impacts on Crime and Deviance

Abstract

As state priorities change, so too do spending patterns. Since state budgets typically operate under a zero-sum game, increases in resource allocation for one social program or priority (e.g., education, corrections, healthcare) result in other programs receiving reduced portions of the budgetary pie. Any changes to social programs spending are likely to have both short- and long-term effects on the social issues that are being prioritized or defunded. Given research indicating that crime is influenced by criminal justice operations and other forms of social welfare, we can expect crime rates to be particularly sensitive to spending changes in a variety of areas. The current study draws on time-series cross-sectional state-level data from 1970-2022 to explore the determinants associated with shifts in state budgetary allocations among key social programs. We also examine the immediate and long-term impacts of budgetary allocations on violent and property crime rates. Policy implications will be discussed.

Authors

• Joshua H. Williams, University of Minnesota Duluth

• Paige Vaughn, University of South Carolina