Celerity of Punishment and Recidivism: An Empirical Examination with Juveniles in Brazil

• In Event: Crime Prevention and the Psychology of Risk and Action

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the celerity of punishment on juvenile recidivism in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Although deterrence theory emphasizes certainty, severity, and celerity, the latter remains understudied, especially among adolescents. Utilizing data from 702 first-time juvenile offenders processed in 2017, we employ Cox regression analysis to assess whether expedited non-custodial sanctions (applied within seven days) deter reoffending. Contrary to expectations, our results indicate that faster case resolution does not significantly reduce recidivism. Instead, gender, drug-related offenses, and probation sanctions emerge as key predictors of reoffending. While expedited sanctions may reduce court caseloads by resolving cases more quickly, this efficiency does not necessarily translate into lower recidivism among juveniles. Despite the common emphasis on swift punishment to deter reoffending in juvenile justice systems, the current evidence fails to demonstrate significant deterrent effects, highlighting the need to rethink existing approaches.

Authors

• Vitor S. Goncalves, Texas A&M University - Central Texas

• Ludmila Ribeiro, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil

• Mark Stafford, Texas State University

• Emily Spivey, New Mexico State University