What Went Wrong: A Comparison of Unsuccessful and Completed Extreme Far-Right Plots

• In Event: National, Local, and Situational Impacts on Terrorism

Abstract

Terrorism plots fail more often than they succeed, and while understanding why a plot comes to fruition can inform prevention strategies not considered before, it is equally important to identify the factors that most frequently lead to unsuccessful outcomes. To address this, the study draws from a situational crime prevention (SCP) framework to examine the structured opportunities of far-right plots using data from the Extremist Crime Database (ECDB). Our findings show significant variation between completed, failed, and foiled far-right plot characteristics and demonstrate that pre-incident conduct plays a major role in the commission of a crime, which subsequently has implications for both future terrorism-related research and law enforcement officials interested in informing measures to reduce the likelihood of extremist violence.

Authors

• Austin C. Barber, Michigan State University

• Steven Chermak, Michigan State University

• Joshua Freilich, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, CUNY

• Jeff Gruenewald, University of Arkansas