Externally Revalidating the Adult Dynamic Validated Instrument for Sex Offense Recidivism (ADVISOR): Results from the Federal Bureau of Prisons

• In Event: Rethinking Risk: Addressing Bias, Accuracy, and Adaptability in Criminal Justice Risk-Need Assessments

Abstract

The Adult Dynamic Validated Instrument for Sex Offense Recidivism (ADVISOR) was designed to predict two types of recidivism—repeat sex offending and failure to register (FTR)—specific to people convicted of sex offenses. The instrument was developed and validated on more than 45,000 men and women convicted of sex offenses who had been released from prisons in 11 states in the U.S. During the internal and external validations, the results showed that while the ADVISOR had adequate predictive performance, achieving an AUC of 0.71 for sex offense recidivism, it performed especially well for females. In this session, the authors present the results from the validation of the ADVISOR on the federal prison population. The analyses focus on individuals with a sex-related offense history who had been released from custody by the Federal Bureau of Prisons (FBOP).

Authors

• Grant Duwe, Minnesota Department of Corrections

• Erik Faust, Federal Bureau of Prisons

• Amy Grau, Federal Bureau of Prisons