Recidivism and Redemption: Developing Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Criminal History

• In Event: Rethinking Risk: Addressing Bias, Accuracy, and Adaptability in Criminal Justice Risk-Need Assessments

Abstract

In 2024, we introduced the concept of criminal prediction decay to contribute to life course discussions on desistance and redemption and increase the functionality of risk-need assessments. Using decades of administrative court records, we developed methods of assessing the decaying impact of criminal history events in the prediction of recidivism, finding that the impact of criminal history indicators decreases overtime and that this decrease is invariant across demographic and offense-related indicators. Furthermore, based on a prior conviction, we identified the “point of redemption,” when prior convictions no longer predict future offending. We extend these efforts, using dynamic criminal history to develop a new version of the Washington Offender Needs Guide (WAONE) assessment tool for the Washington State Department of Corrections (WADOC). We compare findings from the original assessment tool—developed with static indicators—and the updated tool. Study findings indicate decay functions provide a more accurate prediction of reoffending and have substantial theoretical and policy implications to improve supervision practices.

Authors

• Zachary Hamilton, The University of Nebraska at Omaha

• Jennifer Tostlebe, University of Nebraska Omaha

• Alex Kigerl, The University of Nebraska at Omaha

• John Michael Ursino, University of Nebraska Omaha