Risk Score Comparison: Examining How Risk and Need Scores Shift During the First 18 Months of Reentry

• In Event: Rethinking Risk: Addressing Bias, Accuracy, and Adaptability in Criminal Justice Risk-Need Assessments

Abstract

Approximately 95% of incarcerated individuals are eventually released, highlighting the importance of successful reentry. While extensive research has examined the barriers individuals face post-release, less is known about how their risks and needs evolve over time. Risk assessment tools, such as the Washington ONE (i.e., STRONG-R), are commonly used to evaluate recidivism risk and service needs, but they are often administered at a single time point, failing to account for the dynamic nature of reentry. This study examines changes in risk and needs assessment scores over time among a large sample (N = 60,119) of justice-involved adults released from Washington state prisons. By analyzing assessment scores from incarceration through 12- and 18-months post-release, this research explores the extent to which reentry-related risks and needs fluctuate. Findings provide insight into whether current assessment practices adequately capture changes in individuals’ circumstances and inform discussions on adapting supervision and services to better support successful reintegration. Understanding these shifts is crucial for developing policies that address the evolving challenges of reentry and reduce recidivism.

Authors

• Taylor Gonzales, University of Nebraska Omaha

• John Michael Ursino, University of Nebraska Omaha

• Zachary Hamilton, The University of Nebraska at Omaha