Development and Predictive Validity of an Intake Recidivism Risk Screening Tool

• In Event: Risk Screening, Intake Decision-making and Reoffending in Juvenile Courts: Findings from a Rural State

Abstract

Although there are several risk screening instruments that are used at the front end of the juvenile justice system, we are not aware of any risk screening tools in use for intake decision making (e.g., diversion/take no further action, informal case handling, petition for delinquency) in rural jurisdictions. Fewer still are risk instruments that are routinely evaluated for their predictive validity. We report on the development of a risk assessment tool, and interim results of a six juvenile court site assessment of its predictive validity for recidivism across courts serving diverse ecological settings in Mississippi. We developed a 10-item intake risk screening (IRS) tool that can easily be incorporated into the intake process. Scores range from zero to 25 and can be converted to risk levels (i.e., low, moderate, high, very high). Recidivism is defined as a subsequent referral 31 or more days after the initial referral. Time at risk was tracked and we examined recidivism rates for youth at risk for 6 months or longer. Results confirm the predictive validity of the screening tool. Future directions in use of the instrument in judicial decision making are discussed.

Authors

• Angela A. Robertson, Social Science Research Center, Mississippi State University

• Richard Dembo, University of South Florida