Prevalence and Trends in 'Black Swan' Homicides

• In Event: Age and Victimization: Understanding Risk Factors Across the Life-Course

Abstract

The author uses various selection criteria to filter out potential "Black Swan Homicides" from the Supplementary Homicide Reports. While a number of potential definitions of "Black Swan Homicide" will be eventually explored, this particular analysis focuses on child abduction-murder. Various filtering criteria are used, but the general findings are consistent with other estimation procedures used in prior literature: Child abduction-murder is found to be extremely rare, although there is limited evidence of a slight downward trend since the mid 1970s. Even if this trend is real, the data overwhelmingly indicate that there has been little if any crime control benefit from the numerous "memorial crime control" laws, such as the Adam Walsh Act, Jessica's Law, AMBER Alert, and other child safety legislation passed in the wake of horrific crimes against children.

Author

• Timothy Griffin, University of Nevada, Reno