Crime and Policy in Portugal: Assessing the Impact of Biennial Reassessments

• In Event: Politics, Policy Shifts, and Prosecutorial Influence: Examining Transparency, Impact, and Accountability in Criminal Justice

Abstract

This research analyzes how the evolving nature of Portuguese criminal policy is reflected in crime trends. Since the introduction of Law 17/2006, Portugal has implemented a biennial reassessment model for criminal policy, adjusting priorities to align with the shifting nature of crime trends and social dynamics. These readjustments include a revision of crime prevention and investigation priorities. While this approach aims to be adaptive and responsive, little is known about its impact on crime rates. This research seeks to address this gap by analyzing whether changes in criminal policy are related to fluctuations in crime rates and judicial outcomes. The main hypothesis — tested through Interrupted Time Series Analysis — is that prioritizing a crime in the criminal policy law leads to a subsequent decline in its occurrence. Preliminary findings suggest that while some crimes have declined following policy prioritization, others have remained stable or even increased despite heightened focus. Additionally, the substantial volume of criminal cases handled by prosecutors raises questions about whether these policy adjustments have effectively enhanced crime control efforts. Findings will contribute to discussions on the relationship between criminal policy adjustments and crime dynamics, offering insights for future policymaking.

Authors

• Mélanie M. Tiago, University Lusófona, Lisbon, Portugal

• André Inácio, University Lusófona, Lisbon, Portugal