Beyond Borders: How Neighborhood Conditions Shape Violent Crime through Spatial Spillovers

• In Event: Neighborhood Structure, Institutions, and the Persistence of Disorder

Abstract

This study examines the spatial dynamics of violent crime using Social Disorganization Theory (SDT) and spatial econometric modeling, focusing on crime spillover effects across neighborhoods. Using census tract-level data from Houston, Texas (n = 683), a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) is applied to assess direct and indirect effects of neighborhood disadvantage, racial composition, and land use on violent crime. Findings reveal that disadvantage and vacant properties exert both direct and indirect spillover effects on crime, while certain land uses (e.g., bars, and entertainment venues) significantly amplify violence in adjacent areas. Notably, higher levels of educational attainment—often considered a crime deterrent—unexpectedly correlate with increased violent crime, suggesting potential crime-opportunity dynamics in gentrifying areas. These findings suggest that policy targeting place-based crime could benefit from spatially targeting high-risk land use clusters. This research contributes to criminological theory by reinforcing the spatial dimension of social disorganization and highlights the value of spatial econometric models in urban crime analysis.

Authors

• Kyle Maksuta, Western Kentucky University

• Yunhan Zhao, Colorado State University-Pueblo