Examining Change in Conspiracy Beliefs and Violent Extremism over Time

• In Event: The Power of Threats: Language, Violent Extremist Networks, and Political Violence

Abstract

Over the last few years, we have witnessed the increasing influence extreme conspiratorial beliefs can have in motivating individuals to engage in violent extremist behaviors. However, there is still limited empirical evidence which speaks to this relationship and which examines the risk and potential protective factors underpinning both phenomena. To address these growing issues, we conduct 6-wave longitudinal online surveys among the U.S. population. Using parallel latent growth curve modelling, we examine temporal changes in conspiracy theory beliefs, in extremist attitudes as well as behavioural intentions. We further aim to identify which risk and protective factors are most strongly associated with changes in conspiratorial beliefs and violent extremist outcomes over time. By conducting these first-of-a-kind longitudinal surveys on the trajectories of different violent extremist outcomes, conspiracy theories as well as their associated risk and protective factors, we provide unique insights into the developmental trajectories and causal mechanisms.

Authors

• Bettina Rottweiler, University of Nebraska Omaha / NCITE

• Paul Gill, University College London