Sources of Variation in American ISIS Cases Before and After the Caliphate, 2014-2024

• In Event: Understanding Political Violence and Public Safety: Insights from Protest Crimes, Hate Crimes, Radicalization, and Counterterrorism

Abstract

In 2019, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) was driven out of Syria, marking an official end to almost five years of the self-described “caliphate’s” power. Despite this, ISIS-inspired Americans have continued to plan attacks, provide support, and attempt to travel as foreign terrorist fighters, as evidenced by the New Orleans attack on January 1st, 2025. Relatively little research has considered federal court cases of those convicted of ISIS-inspired crimes in the U.S. following the 2019 fall of the caliphate. This study addresses this gap through a two-part research project using original data collected from federal court documents and English publications from the Islamic State. With a sample of over 250 defendants, the study quantitatively analyzes patterns related to intentions to travel, plots for attacks in the homeland, and ISIS use of English media to communicate with supporters–—comparing trends pre- and post-2019. This study has theoretical and policy implications, offering insights into the challenges countering homegrown violent jihadism in the post-caliphate era. Findings from this study serve to shed light upon homegrown violent jihadist activity in the United States against the backdrop of the rise and fall of the ISIS caliphate.

Authors

• Camden Carmichael, UNO/NCITE

• Callie Vitro, University of Nebraska Omaha

• Austin Doctor, University of Nebraska Omaha / NCITE

• Seamus Hughes, University of Nebraska Omaha / NCITE