Utilizing Risk Terrain Modeling to Predict Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing Risk in Marine Protected Areas Globally

• In Event: Criminology of the Seas

Abstract

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been widely adopted to mitigate biodiversity loss by safeguarding critical habitats and increasing fish biomass. However, illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing undermines MPA effectiveness by depleting target species and exacerbating resource competition. Over 50% of global MPAs may fail to meet conservation targets due to fishing pressures encroaching from their boundaries. Key drivers of IUU fishing include weak enforcement, jurisdictional ambiguities in transboundary MPAs, and challenges in monitoring vast marine areas. Although existing solutions - such as community engagement, enhanced international cooperation, and patrol optimization based on the spatial and temporal distribution of illegal fishing activity - show promise, they may lack predictive capabilities for future IUU risks. This research employs risk terrain modeling (RTM) to predict high-risk areas for IUU fishing within global MPAs. It integrates geographic risk factors, including edge effects, the distribution of economically valuable fish species, proximity to potentially illegal transshipment activities, and proximity to ports of convenience, to produce a composite “risk terrain” map that quantifies these risks across target MPAs. The findings support a proactive and more efficient allocation of enforcement resources, thereby reducing management costs, mitigating socio-economic harm, and ultimately improving marine conservation outcomes in line with sustainable development goals.

Authors

• Chi-Heng Tsai, National Taiwan Ocean University

• Gohar Petrossian, John Jay College of Criminal Justice