Assessing Risk, Assigning Bail: A Factorial Experiment on the Public’s Pretrial Decision-Making

• In Event: Public Opinion and Decision-Making in the Context of Courts and Sentencing

Abstract

Across the United States, jurisdictions have introduced pretrial risk assessments to enhance fairness and reduce the detention of low-risk defendants. However, public skepticism remains, as seen in California’s failed attempt to replace cash bail with a risk-based system. Key concerns include the “black box” problem, referring to which factors are considered in risk assessment construction, how they are weighted, and who makes these decisions. Despite the public’s influence on adoption and adherence, limited research examines their perceptions of the pretrial process. Using data from a factorial vignette experiment, we analyze how participants assess a hypothetical defendant’s public safety risk and determine pretrial supervision and bail amounts. Findings reveal how the public weighs each factor independently and jointly, offering insight into preferences for pretrial risk assessment construction and opportunities to improve adoption and long-term judicial adherence.

Authors

• Stacie St. Louis, American University

• Nick Petersen, University of Miami