Moving Beyond Single-decision Scenarios: Evaluating the Use of Multistage Vignettes to Study Proactive Crime Avoidance

• In Event: Decisions, Dangers, and Deterrence: New Perspectives on Offender Choice

Abstract

Traditional criminological vignettes focus on a single decision point, often overlooking earlier choices that lead individuals to avoid (or enter) risky situations. In this study, we evaluate multistage vignettes as a method for capturing the evolving nature of decision-making. We surveyed 1,150 adults via CloudResearch Connect using a multistage vignette on the decision to drink and drive home from a bar. This approach revealed a critical group: individuals who report they would preemptively avoid a high-risk situation at an earlier decision-making stage (i.e., refrain from going to the bar, driving there, or drinking once there), but who reported they would drink and drive if faced with the situation. Multinomial logistic regression analyses with key predictors show that this group closely resembles those who report they would drink and drive but differs significantly from those who would consistently avoid the behavior. These findings underscore the importance of studying proactive avoidance as a distinct route for crime prevention, potentially offering a more effective strategy than resisting criminal behavior once in a high-risk situation.

Authors

• Jessica R. Deitzer, University of Nebraska Omaha

• Timothy C. Barnum, Sam Houston State University

• Shaina Herman, Sam Houston State University