Measuring trends in probation and parole outcomes before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic

• In Event: Supervision in the Aftermath of the Pandemic

Abstract

While extensive literature exists on the experiences of probation and parole staff during the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a notable gap in research examining the impact of policy and practice change during this time on key probation outcomes. This study analyzed trends in these outcomes, differences across client groups, and effects of COVID-19 policy and practice changes. Using administrative data from six probation agencies in two states, we examined three main research questions: 1) Did rates of recidivism change during the COVID-19 pandemic?; 2) Did engagement in rehabilitative programming change during the pandemic?, and 3) How did these changes vary across different client groups? To answer these questions, we conducted growth curve analysis (without and with covariates) and multiple group growth curve analysis (e.g., client groups). Understanding these trends is critical for comprehending the full impact of policy and practice change during the pandemic. Findings can inform future pandemic guidelines and highlight which innovations adopted during the pandemic may be beneficial to continue.

Authors

• Jill Viglione, University of Central Florida

• James Ray, University of Central Florida

• Faye S. Taxman, Center for Advancing Correctional Excellence, George Mason University