Reconsidering the Effects of Peers on Delinquency: A Marginal Structural Model Approach

• In Event: Findings From the University of Cincinnati’s Crime and Sociogenomics Throughout the Life course (CASTLE) Lab

Abstract

Exposure to delinquent peers is one of the most well-known correlates of crime in the field of criminology. In Akers’ (1979) social learning theory, delinquent peer exposure is theorized to have a direct causal influence on one’s criminal behavior. Others—such as Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990)—have rejected this notion of causality, instead offering the spuriousness thesis - that low self-control leads to both delinquency and peer selection. To account for this possibility, studies have controlled for the influence of self-control when investigating the peer exposure/crime relationship. However, in doing so, these studies have blocked an important potential part of the causal pathway: exposure to delinquent peers over time may affect one’s level of self-control and ability to self-regulate, which in turn may influence one’s criminal behavior. Using a marginal structural modeling approach, this study considers levels of self-control as both a mediator and a time-varying confounder in the relationship between delinquent peers and criminal behavior, providing what may be considered a more accurate depiction of the causal effects of delinquent peer exposure.

Author

• Francesco P. DiRienzo, University of Cincinnati