Did Closing the Gun Show Loophole Actually Work?

• In Event: Tracking the Trade: Gun Trafficking, Markets, and Regulatory Gaps

Abstract

On May 20, 2024, the Biden Administration implemented a rule change designed to close the so-called “gun show loophole,” which had allowed unlicensed private sellers to deal firearms without the requirement of conducting background checks on prospective buyers. The rule change broadens the definition of individuals classified as dealers engaged in the business of selling firearms, potentially increasing the proportion of gun sellers who will need to be federally licensed and need to conduct background checks when selling firearms. This research investigates the effects of the change to the gun show loophole on the number of firearms for sale online by unlicensed dealers on Armslist.com, the largest online site facilitating the sale of firearms in the United States. We use a difference-in-difference event-study design comparing treated states affected by the policy change compared to control states with preexisting background check laws. This design permits examining how the treatment effect, if any, evolves with time. We expect our findings to provide rigorous evidence about the effect of closing the gun show loophole on unlicensed firearm transactions in the US.

Authors

• Charles Lanfear, University of Cambridge

• David Kirk, University of Pennsylvania