From Sentencing to Release: Analyzing Racial Disparities in Incarceration Duration Across U.S. States

• In Event: Intersecting Inequalities: Race, Gender, and State Power in Health and Justice Systems

Abstract

While racial disparities in arrest, conviction, and sentencing are well-documented and declining, less attention has been given to disparities in actual time served. This study examines whether racial disparities in incarceration duration persist after controlling for legal and policy factors, particularly within correctional decision-making. If disparities remain after accounting for sentencing laws, judicial discretion, and prison administration, it would suggest that racial biases continue to influence parole boards, prison administrators, and discretionary release decisions.

Using the National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) dataset (1991–2019), this research isolates the effect of race on actual time served while examining disparities by age, education, and gender. A fixed-effects model will control for unobserved state-level variations in sentencing laws, judicial behavior, and parole policies. An instrumental variable (IV) approach will address endogeneity, using state political ideology—measured by Republican or Democrat control of the legislature and governor’s office, along with state-level popular vote margins—as an instrument for sentencing policies.

Preliminary findings indicate that racial disparities remain significant, with Black and Hispanic individuals serving longer sentences than White individuals. If disparities persist even after controlling for correctional stakeholders, it would suggest systemic racial bias in post-incarceration processes.

Author

• Shahriad Islam, Rutgers University