Assessing the Predictive Validity of NIRVANA: A Holistic Risk/Needs Assessment for Youth Receiving Prevention Services

• In Event: Decoding Juvenile Risk: Review of Tools and Trends

Abstract

The current study assesses the predictive validity of a newly-developed holistic risk/needs assessment for youth receiving prevention services. Leveraging a multiyear statewide sample of over 20,000 prevention youth, multivariate and Area Under Curve techniques are used to examine predictive validity in predicting future formal juvenile justice system involvement across sex, race/ethnicity, and multiple youth age ranges. Furthermore, predictive validity across offense type (misdemeanor, non-violent felony, violent felony) is examined. Findings demonstrate large effect sizes for static risk only, dynamic risk only, and total risk scores. Policy implications surrounding the feasibility of a holistic risk/needs assessment for prevention youth are discussed.

Authors

• Michael Baglivio, Youth Opportunity

• Kevin Wolff, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Katherine Jackowski, Youth Opportunity

• Jon Intravia, Ball State University