The Impact of Black Population Increases on Voter Suppression in Southern States Controlling for Subregional Differences

• In Event: The Indirect Effect of Voter Suppression Strategies on Criminal Justice Consequences for Voters of Color

Abstract

Blalock’s power threat hypothesis asserts that as minority populations groups increase the potential of their political influence becomes threatening to majority groups. During the reconstruction era when formerly enslaved blacks significantly outnumbered whites, lynching as a form of informal social control and Jim Crow laws as formal social control were used as voter suppression strategies. However, the prevalence of lynching in the south declined over time with the success of Jim Crow laws until the Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA). In 2013, The US Supreme Court overturned the VRA removing DOJ oversight resulting in a proliferation in voter suppression strategies primarily in the south. Although Blalock suggests increases in Black populations would warrant voter suppression strategies, we hypothesize that cultural and economic differences undermine the theory. Cotton dependence, % urban, % Black in state/counties, white poverty, antebellum south slavery legacy precludes considering the south as a monolithic entity. These subregional differences vary the rationale and scope of voter suppression strategies between deep south and border south states thus indicating power threat theory is nuanced. We use EAVS county data to test whether Black population increases across southern states increases voter suppression unilaterally or whether there are subregional differences.

Authors

• Frank S. Pezzella, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Brian Lawton, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Noreen Ali, CUNY Graduate Center / John Jay College of Criminal Justice