How to Estimate Cross-Border, Non-Detected Flows of Illicit Drugs Moving Through the Postal System.

• In Event: Quantitative Contributions to Criminal Justice Research

Abstract

Issues: Illicit drug smuggling has increasingly shifted online to reach a broader user base anonymously. This method takes advantage of global postal and courier systems, as the growing volume of parcels complicates thorough monitoring. Research on the interplay between illicit drug markets and postal logistics remains limited, as it spans multiple disciplines and stakeholders. Our study aims to enable enhanced detection capacity tailored to this specific logistic segment.
Approach:We developed an estimation model to assess the yearly volume of cross-border illicit drug flows moving through the postal system in the United Kingdom, a leading country for online drug smuggling. By applying classical economic equations and reviewing the literature on online drug purchases (dark web, surface web, and social media), we estimated the share of drugs transported via postal services.
Key Findings:Our analysis indicates that the estimated net flow of illicit drugs entering the UK via parcels is significantly higher than reported seizures, leading to considerable societal harm and increased risks to the legitimate supply chain. Implications: This study introduces an operational model to gauge the prevalence of drug trafficking in specific cross-border logistics sectors. Such estimates are essential for fostering adaptability and targeted responses to emerging threats.

Author

• Agnese Raimondi, University of Lausanne