Assessing Trends in High Rate Offending Among American Youth During the 1990s

• In Event: Trends & Patterns in Violent Crime

Abstract

During the 1990s the United States experienced an unprecedented decline in rates of violence. Much research has examined this decline in the past, using official statistics and focusing largely on macro-level explanations. While we know quite a bit about the age, race, and gender trends in offending during this period, we have less information on the offending patterns themselves. This research considers whether the decline was due to changes in crime prevalence, incidence, or some combination of the two as well as whether explanations for changes in the number of high-rate offenders differ from low-rate offenders. Using panel cohort data from the Pittsburgh Youth Study (PYS), the analysis uses multilevel logistic growth curve models comparing offending between two cohorts of youth in the 1990s. Results suggest that the decline was largely due to increases in the number of non-offenders (i.e., a decline in prevalence) rather than decreases in the number of crimes committed by high-rate offenders (i.e., a decline in incidence). Further, results suggest that explanations for declines in the number of high-rate offenders do not differ from that of low-rate offenders.

Author

• Kelsey Cundiff, University of Missouri-St. Louis