Testing the Predictive Validity of Arizona’s Risk-Needs Assessment for Youth on Juvenile Probation

• In Event: Reassessing Risk, Engagement, and Innovation in Juvenile Probation Through the FORGE Framework

Abstract

Across the juvenile legal system, risk-needs assessments are implemented to determine youths’ risk of reoffending and, in turn, to guide legal decisions about the appropriate responses to delinquent behavior. Indeed, Arizona’s state policy requires the use of a specific juvenile risk-needs assessment to inform decisions about the level of surveillance and services for youth on juvenile probation: the Arizona Youth Assessment System – Dispositional Tool (AZYAS-DIS). Although state code requires each youth to be assessed using the AZYAS-DIS, the predictive validity of the instrument has yet to be empirically tested. Using a sample of 2,268 youth on juvenile probation, this study examines the predictive validity of the state-mandated AZYAS-DIS in forecasting recidivism outcomes among justice-involved youth. Analyses examine the predictive accuracy of youths’ overall risk level and youths’ domain-specific risk levels. As the first study to empirically evaluate this juvenile risk-needs assessment, results from this study contribute to an evidence-base for a state-wide policy with immediate relevance to practitioners and policymakers in Arizona. Moreover, results from this study provide a rich foundation for future research.

Authors

• Kelsey Tom, Arizona State University

• Adam Fine, Arizona State University