Evading Capture: Exploring the Effects of Co-Offending Networks on Time-to-Apprehension for Actively Pursued Fugitives

• In Event: Exploring Strategies to Improve Crime Prevention, Reduction, and Clearance

Abstract

Social networks can exert strong influence on individual decisions and behavior. Scant research has considered how social connections impact fugitives who are being pursued by the police. On one hand, these relationships could be a source of support that helps fugitives evade apprehension. Alternatively, criminal ties could increase their susceptibility to arrest if their co-offending peers provide information on their whereabouts in response to law enforcement pressure for information. The current study uses social network analysis to explore how co-offending relationships might influence the ability of serious fugitives to evade capture. Administrative police data are used to construct co-offending networks for Boston, Massachusetts from 2014-2019 and identify wanted persons proactively targeted by a specialized fugitive apprehension unit. Survival analyses are conducted to determine whether the existence of criminal ties and the nature of those relationships prolongs or hastens the time-to-apprehension for actively pursued fugitives. Findings are discussed in the context of their relevance to fugitive pursuits, public safety, and justice to crime victims.

Authors

• Brandon Turchan, Michigan State University

• Anthony Braga, University of Pennsylvania