The [Judicial] Ship of Theseus: Tracking Shifts in the Judge-Level Sentencing Patterns

• In Event: Court Data and Judicial Decision Making

Abstract

Many studies that leverage judicial sentencing preferences in their causal designs assume that a judge’s sentencing preferences remain fixed over time. We examine whether that assumption is valid by evaluating whether judges demonstrate stable sentencing patterns throughout their careers. Judicial decision-making exists within a broader criminal legal field in which judicial socialization, shifting political climates, hardening cognitive heuristics, and institutional constraints may affect sentencing preferences and practices over time. We explore these questions through an analysis of 40 years of sentencing data (1984-2023) from the Minnesota Sentencing Guidelines Commission (MSGC), which includes comprehensive data on nearly all felony sentences in Minnesota during the study period. We find that judicial sentencing preferences are hardly stable as judges are influenced by local norms and political events and are reactive to significant structural changes. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for research that relies on judge assignment and by highlighting policy considerations.

Authors

• Robert Stewart, University of Maryland

• Dixin Li, University of Maryland