The Pandemic’s Footprint: Exploring the Spatial Shifts in Crimes in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

• In Event: Communities and Place Panel: Spatiotemporal analysis of crime and modelling: Insights from the Brazilian context

Abstract

The COVID-19 stay-at-home orders altered crime dynamics, leading to a global decline in street crimes. However, their impact on the spatial distribution of crimes remains underexplored. This study investigates whether the pandemic influenced the spatial patterns of crimes in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, through the lens of routine activity and social disorganization theories. Using Getis-Ord for spatial autocorrelation, we found hot spots shift toward sub-centers, while cold spots increased. Over time, crime patterns gradually reverted to pre-pandemic trends, with variations by crime type. We disaggregate crimes into residential burglary, residential robbery, commercial theft, commercial robbery, pickpocketing, street robbery, car theft, carjacking, and theft and robbery on public transportation. Next, we will examine the relationship between crime, land use, and sociodemographic factors, using Differential Moran’s I to identify key predictors of spatial shifts. These analyses aim to enhance our understanding of crime dynamics and inform targeted prevention strategies for future crises.

Authors

• Vitor S. Goncalves, Texas A&M University - Central Texas

• Vania Ceccato, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden

• Rafael Lara Mazoni Andrade, PUC Minas and Sejusp-MG