The Bukele Effect: Assessing the Impact of El Salvador’s State of Emergency on Homicide Rates

• In Event: State Power, Globalization, and Homicide: Cross-National Perspectives on Violence and Social Change

Abstract

Until recently, El Salvador had one of the highest homicide rates in the world, reaching 105 per 100,000 in 2015, largely driven by gang violence. By 2023, the country became one of the safest in the Americas, with a homicide rate of just 2 per 100,000. This dramatic decline is attributed to President Nayib Bukele’s estado de excepción (state of exception) policy, implemented in March 2022, which relies on mass arrests, surveillance, and repression from law enforcement. Using nation-month data from June 2019 to February 2025, I analyze homicide trends through autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) interrupted time series techniques. Findings indicate that the policy significantly reduced violence, decreasing homicides by approximately 124 per month—amounting to over 2,800 fewer deaths since March 2022. These results are interpreted through the lens of law enforcement deterrence theory. Additionally, I explore why Bukele’s approach succeeded, whereas previous mano dura (iron fist) policies failed.

Author

• Guillermo Escaño, Villanova University