A Targeted Crime Reduction Implementation: An Analysis of Immediate Effects and Long-Term Sustainability

• In Event: Exploring Strategies to Improve Crime Prevention, Reduction, and Clearance

Abstract

This study examines the impact of a targeted downtown intervention effort implemented by the City of Seattle in partnership with the Seattle Police Department, aimed at reducing crime and disorder in historically high-crime areas of downtown Seattle. Launched in September 2024, this initiative partners with community agencies and city stakeholders, deploying three scheduled daily intervention efforts at two different hot spot locations. Through Causal Impact implementation of Bayesian structural time-series, we assess the effectiveness of the intervention in decreasing violent crime rates and community-generated calls for service. Our findings indicate a significant reduction in violent crime within the intervention locations and the broader downtown area, suggesting the intervention’s immediate effectiveness. Additionally, a notable decline in calls from the community further supports the initiative's positive influence on public safety perceptions. However, the analysis reveals that the strength of these impacts diminishes over time, indicating potential challenges in sustaining long-term crime reduction. This study underscores the importance of ongoing evaluation and adaptation of intervention strategies to maintain their efficacy in enhancing community safety and well-being.

Authors

• Elizabeth Dotson, Seattle Police Department

• Ana Ortiz Salazar, Seattle Police Department

• Loren Atherly, Seattle Police Department