Understanding Homicide Trends through a Political Cohort Lens: Evidence from England and Wales, 1977–2022

• In Event: Trends & Patterns in Violent Crime

Abstract

This paper investigates the fluctuating trends in homicide rates in England and Wales from 1977 to 2022, situating these patterns within their wider social, cultural, and political contexts. Drawing on data from the Homicide Index and the British Crime Survey/Crime Survey for England and Wales (BCS/CSEW), the project explores how demographic factors (age, gender, ethnicity), situational variables (weapon use, location, relationship to the victim), routine activities, and broader socio-economic conditions have shaped homicide patterns over time. A key innovation of this study is its application of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis to identify the role of political cohorts—generations socialized under distinct political regimes—in shaping homicide trends. We ask whether homicide varies across different political generations, and if so, how age and cohort experiences mediate these effects. Our findings offer new insights into the long-term influence of political socialization on serious violence and open up fresh possibilities for integrating criminological trends with political sociology and social change.

Authors

• Stephen Farrall, University of Nottingham

• Emily Gray, University of Warwick

• Andromachi Tseloni, Nottingham Trent University, UK