Global Terrorism Risk Evaluation: Weighted Analysis and Hotspot Dynamics by Using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD)

• In Event: Examining Terrorism Trends and Threats

Abstract

This study intends to initiate a quantitative assessment of global terrorism from 1970 to 2020 by examining various attack types and their severity through spatial analysis and weighted risk evaluation. Previous research has primarily concentrated on specific nations or Western societies, resulting in a relative lack of comprehensive global comparisons. To fill this void, this study analyzes long-term trends in terrorism and develops a spatiotemporal risk assessment model in a global scope by using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The Entropy Weight Method (EWM) to calculate a Weighted Risk Score (Si) based on fatalities, injuries, and property damage incorporates a weighted hotspot analysis to offer a more objective and nuanced assessment of terrorism risk. The findings reveal dynamic shifts in the prioritization of attack types over time and across different regions, highlighting significant structural changes before and after 2001. This research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the evolving nature of terrorist threats and their spatial-temporal distribution, thereby providing insights for strategic security interventions on a global scale.

Authors

• Naeun Kim, Kyonggi University

• Junho Park, Kyonggi University

• Euigab Hwang, Kyonggi University