Updated Monetary Cost Estimates of Crime up to Ages 37-38 in At-Risk Men

• In Event: Measurement and Methodologies in Life Course Criminology

Abstract

Purpose and design: Interest in the economics of crime has grown over time (Cohen, 2020). An understudied topic is whether willingness-to-pay (WTP) cost estimates of crime are equally distributed across distinctive offender trajectory groups. The purpose of this study was to provide updated financial cost estimates (in 2017 USD) of crime for a community sample of at-risk men. We hypothesized that the highest-level arrest trajectory group would account for a disproportionate amount of the costs compared to other trajectory groups. Longitudinal data from ages 10-11 to ages 37-38 of 206 men enrolled in the Oregon Youth Study were used. The annual number of official arrests, types of offenses, and jail dispositions were derived from juvenile and adult court records. Findings and conclusions: Using semi-parametric group-based modeling in Stata (Nagin, 2005), three arrest trajectories were identified across the 27-year period: high-level chronic offenders (15.7%), low-level chronic offenders (21.6%), and rare offenders (62.8%). Inflation-adjusted WTP-cost estimates were calculated based on Cohen and Piquero (2009). As hypothesized, the high-level chronic offenders accounted for most (70%; on average $1,536,544 per person) of the inflation-adjusted WTP-costs of crime accrued by the sample up to ages 37-38. Implications of these findings will be discussed.

Authors

• Margit Wiesner, University of Houston

• David M. Day, Toronto Metropolitan University

• Deborah M. Capaldi, Oregon Social Learning Center

• Joung Yon Choi, University of Houston

• Weiwei Wu, University of Houston