How to Reduce Crime and Disorder? An Impact Evaluation of the Italian Administrative Orders

• In Event: Reinventing Security: Evaluating the Impact of New Crime Prevention Policies in Liberal Democracies

Abstract

Over the past fifteen years, numerous European countries have expanded their crime prevention strategies, incorporating objectives traditionally associated with other policy areas, including reducing fear and enhancing quality of life. Within this evolving framework, various instruments have emerged, such as antisocial behavior orders, hybrid civil laws, individual orders, and mayors’ orders (AOs). In Italy, mayors’ administrative orders authorize local governments to address a broad range of issues, including prostitution, drug dealing, alcohol abuse, and public decency offenses. Although several policy studies have investigated their diffusion, distribution, and content, empirical analyses of the effectiveness and efficiency of AOs remain particularly scarce. Moreover, this research seeks to fill that gap by examining whether AOs significantly reduce crime and disorder rates from 2018 to 2024. Employing a two-way fixed-effects regression approach on macro-level panel data—akin to a generalized difference-in-differences model—we will establish a comprehensive dataset with provincial-level units and aggregate indicators capturing crime and disorder trends. Our methodology scrutinizes both the immediate impact of AO adoption and subsequent changes following their discontinuation. Furthermore, we explore possible heterogeneous effects across different contexts, thereby contributing crucial insights into the broader debate on large-scale security policies and their overall effectiveness in contemporary European settings.

Authors

• Diego Giannone, University of Campania - L. Vanvitelli

• Marco Calaresu, University of Sassari

• Mauro Tebaldi, University of Sassari

• Adriano Cozzolino, University of Campania - L. Vanvitelli

• Mirko Nazzari, University of Sassari

• Chiara De Micheli, University of Sassari