No Sales After Midnight? Assessing the Effectiveness of the Tenderloin Retail Hours Restriction Pilot Program on Drug-related Crime

• In Event: Reinventing Security: Evaluating the Impact of New Crime Prevention Policies in Liberal Democracies

Abstract

U.S. local policymakers frequently adopt business curfews to reduce crime by restricting nighttime commercial activities in crime hotspots. Yet, empirical evaluations of their effectiveness remain scarce. This study analyzes San Francisco’s Tenderloin Retail Hours Restriction Pilot Program, a policy aimed at curbing drug-related crimes by mandating closure of selected retail businesses between midnight and 5 a.m. Employing a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) approach, we compare observed post-intervention crime levels with a constructed counterfactual scenario. Preliminary findings indicate a 25% relative reduction in drug-related crimes following the curfew, though this result is not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that isolated temporal restrictions may offer limited impact on deeply rooted drug-related crime. We argue for integrated, context-specific policies that address underlying socio-economic vulnerabilities alongside place-based crime prevention. Implications for research and policy are discussed.

Authors

• Mirko Nazzari, University of Sassari

• Marco Calaresu, University of Sassari

• Moris Triventi, University of Milan