Focused Deterrence and Crime Reduction: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials and Quasi-Experiments

• In Event: Integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) in Police Work

Abstract

Focused deterrence receives qualified support as an evidence-based crime prevention strategy. For instance, the National Academies’ Committee on Proactive Policing observed, “focused deterrence programs generate statistically significant crime reduction impacts… unfortunately, there have been no randomized experimental evaluations” and concluded “the overall methodological rigor of focused deterrence evaluations needs to be strengthened.” The Council on Criminal Justice similarly suggested that focused deterrence is effective in most cases but “…more rigorous studies could strengthen the confidence of this conclusion.” The most recent iteration of an ongoing systematic review of focused deterrence studies lamented the lack of randomized experiments and noted that program impacts were mediated by the rigor of the quasi-experimental designs used in the evaluations. In recent years, several randomized controlled trials measuring the effects of focused deterrence on crime have been completed with mixed results. The prominence of focused deterrence in violence prevention coupled with the heterogeneous impacts observed in recent research underscore the need for ongoing review. In this manuscript, we present the findings of an updated Campbell Collaboration systematic review of 49 eligible studies, including 8 randomized controlled trials, evaluating the effects of focused deterrence on crime.

Authors

• Anthony Braga, University of Pennsylvania

• Brandon Turchan, Michigan State University

• David Weisburd, Hebrew University