Material or Myth or Mirage: Re-examining Cybercrime as a Potential Explanation for the Crime Drop

• In Event: Cybercrime Unmasked: Myths, AI, and the Reality of Impunity

Abstract

While there is little debate about whether a crime drop occurred in America since the 1990s, there is contention about the causes. Previous literature, however, has not fully examined the the rise of cybercrime as a potential explanation for the crime drop. Moreover, the official sources of crime data (e.g., the UCR/NIBRS, and the NCVS) do not meaningfully record cybercrime. However, other data sources do exist that could assess the extent to which cybercrime has impacted offline crime in America. While limited, data from the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) can serve as a proxy measure for cybercrime rates. The current project examined the potential of displacement of terrestrial crime into cybercrime at the state and national level using data from 2001-2023 of the IC3 and from the UCR/NIBRS systems. Multilevel modeling analyses revealed that while many economic-based and non-violent interpersonal crimes appear to have been displaced online, it is not clear that the crime drop can be fully attributable to the concurrent increases in cybercrime. Policy implications and findings are discussed in light of limitations.

Author

• Timothy Austin Engle, University of Cincinnati