The Police Opioid Seizure Temporal Risk (POSTeR) Model of Increased Exposure to Fatal Overdose

• In Event: Police Responses to Vulnerable Populations

Abstract

Context: Recent analyses exhibit positive associations between police opioid seizures and ensuing risk of fatal overdose at the local level of individual incidents. Since these associations run counter to the commonly held belief that removing potent illicit substances from the community is protective of overdose, a causal model is needed to demonstrate this association and convey the overdose risks that follow from police opioid seizures.

Methods: Leveraging well-established biological and psychological principles, our analysis presents the Police Opioid Seizure Temporal Risk (POSTeR) Model, delinates the physical and behavioral outcomes that increase the ensuing temporal risk of fatal overdose.

Results: The need to prevent withdrawal symptoms leads people to seek a replacement supply, while reduced opioid tolerance resulting from involuntary abstinence combines with the uncertain potency of a replacement supply of illicit opioids to significantly increase the difficulty of administering a safe but effective dose. People in withdrawal often have a reduced aversion to risk, prompting them to consume this uncertain dose in a manner that increases their exposure to overdose.

Conclusions: Strategies that emphasize police opioid seizures as a way to reduce the prevalence of illicit drugs can worsen one of the most significant problems they are meant to address.

Authors

• Brandon del Pozo, Brown University

• Traci C. Green, Brandeis University

• Morgan Godvin, San Diego State University

• Bradley Ray, RTI International